C19 Pessimism, China Sanctions, and Libyan Civil War Goes International

Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss Americans' growing gloom regarding Covid-19. Over the last month, Americans are becoming more pessimistic about whether the pandemic is getting better or worse; about how long it will last; and about its long-term impact on the economy. The shift has come after nearly four weeks of rising daily case numbers--and after nearly one week of rising daily death numbers. According to Pew, 71% of Americans now say that thinking about the state of their country makes them “angry.” Only 17% say “proud.”

Economic indicators start to show improvement. The NFIB Business Optimism Index for June rose to 100.6. Though with recent surges in Covid-19 cases, this index could significantly drop for July. Industrial production in the US for June was +5.4%, beating expectations of +4.2%. In China, exports YoY unexpectedly rose +0.5%. This was due to exporting large quantities of facemasks and medical equipment. China's Q2 GDP YoY came in positive at +3.2%.

Cancel culture divides liberals. Last week, many prominent liberals sparked controversy by signing a Harper's Magazine letter calling for an end to cancel culture. One of the signers, Bari Weiss, resigned from the NYT after citing bullying from her coworkers regarding the letter. That's the second major resignation from the NYT in the last month. In the broader scheme, cancel culture threatens to split the Democratic Party just as Biden gains ground in the polls.

Trump signs the Hong King Autonomy Act. The president has 90 days to submit a list to Congress of Chinese officials who helped erode HK's autonomy. He must also submit a list of finical institutions that worked with said officials. The executive office is then given one year to deal out sanctions.

Poland holds presidential elections. President Andrezk Duda won reelection in the closest race in the country's history. He won with 51% of the vote against his opponent's 49%. Duda ran on a socially conservative platform while rallying against the "influence" of Western countries.

Turkey and Egypt inch closer to war. The two countries have become entwined with the Libyan civil war. Turkey supports the north-western Tripoli government, while Egypt supports the eastern government of General Khalifa Haftar. Egypt has declared they will invade Libya if the port city of Sirte is captured by Tripoli/Turkey.
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