Inflation, TikTok, and The Possibility of a Contested Election

Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the possibility of future inflation. There are already multiple warnings signs that inflation is coming. The US dollar continues to fall as industrial metals and agricultural prices rise. Gold is up 18% since early May. And since mid-May, M2 is up YoY 23%. We've never seen such rapid YoY growth in the money supply since we have data (that is, going back nearly to the Civil War). One possible exception came in 1944, at the peak of global war. IMO, if C19 gets milder and a generous stimulus passes, get ready for rising inflation. Granted, these are big if's.

Economic indicators remain mixed. The ISM Manf PMI came in at 54.2 for July, showing substantial growth. The Markit Services PMI came in at 49.6 for July, marking six straight months of contraction. Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell from 78.1 in June to 72.5 in July. And US GDP QoQ came in at -9.5% for Q2. That was significantly better than Europe's GDP readings in Q1, though the Eurozone is currently growing faster than the US.

Trump targets TikTok. Last Friday, President Trump announced TikTok (owned by the Chinese company ByteDance) would be banned in the US over national security concerns. By Sunday, Microsoft announced it was in talks to but the US part of the company. Trump has given the two companies until September 15 to make a deal.

Apple increases production in India. Foxconn, who produces Apple's products, has moved production of the IPhone 11 out of China and into India. This is the first time an Apple flagship product will be made outside of China. Apple is trying to diversify its production in advance of further deterioration in US relations with China.

Libyan civil war reaches a decisive moment. The Turkish backed Tripoli government is placing troops around the city of Sirte. Russian mercenaries, supporting the eastern government of General Haftar, currently hold the city and are constructing defenses. Egypt has declared that if Sirte falls to Tripoli, they will invade Libya to repel Turkish influence. Is war looming between Turkey and Egypt?

Neither party may accept the results of the 2020 election. As the 2020 election looms, Trump has repeated goaded liberals by refusing to say whether he will "accept" the results of the fall election. But a new report from the Transition Integrity Project says that the left may similarly reject the election results if Trump wins. With mail-in voting, results could take weeks to determine, and there is a significant chance that whoever looses will claim foul play. The only earlier parallel, suggests the report, may be the brokered election of 1876--after which the Democrats agreed to allow the Republican Rutherford B. Hayes to assume office only in return for putting an end to Reconstruction.
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