พอดคาสท์ Week Ahead ชั้นนำ (2024)

1
Wave of change 36:54

4d ago36:54

36:54

On November 21, Simon Ekpa, a dual citizen of Nigeria and Finland and self-proclaimed IPOB leader, was arrested in Finland on terrorism-related charges. Accused of using social media to incite violence in Nigeria, his arrest highlights the impact of online rhetoric. How will this affect separatist activities in southeastern Nigeria? Meanwhile, Nige…

1
The Week Ahead - Back Towards Normal? 14:01

5d ago14:01

14:01

Inflation and policy rates are returning towards normal in many countries. This week our focus turns back towards normal market drivers. We discuss core inflation in the US and the latest set of Fed meeting minutes. Across Europe, we have a number of central bank speakers, key inflation and growth readings to watch out for, as well as Tokyo inflati…

1
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook 11:17

9d ago11:17

11:17

I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the components of demand, that is to say, consumption, investment, trade and government spending. This gives you an initial projection of real GDP growth. You then feed this into labor market equations, alo…

1
Elections, War, And Sabotage 26:38

16d ago26:38

26:38

What does Donald Trump's election mean for the war in Ukraine? Author and analyst Mark Galeotti joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss the ramifications of the U.S. vote and examine Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe.โดย Steve Gutterman

1
Whiplash 32:15

11d ago32:15

32:15

We start with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Nigeria, the first by an Indian PM in 17 years. With over $27 billion in Indian investments in Nigeria, what is the potential to expand trade and cooperation? Will this historic visit deepen Nigeria-India ties? Next, Nigeria’s economic woes are mounting. Manufacturers report ₦1.2…

1
The Week Ahead - Global Aftershocks 21:49

12d ago21:49

21:49

In last week’s podcast we focused on the US and China following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections. This week we continue to discuss the implications of Trump 2.0 on other parts of the globe. Also on deck next week are US housing starts data, CPI prints in the UK and Japan, as well as Bank Indonesia likely again pausing amid extern…

1
The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep 12:37

16d ago12:37

12:37

The most urgent task facing investors in the wake of the 2024 elections is figuring out how much of the Trump agenda, as broadly outlined on the campaign trail, will be put into effect. A full and literal implementation across taxes, trade and immigration could have unwelcome consequences for the economy in both the short and long run. A more parti…

1
On a financial edge 33:00

18d ago33:00

33:00

We begin in Southern Africa, where Botswana is undergoing a historic political shift. After 58 years of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) rule, the country has elected opposition candidate Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) as its new president. What are the implications of his victory for Botswana's future? What are the broader po…

1
The Week Ahead – Trump 2.0 19:03

19d ago19:03

19:03

Following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections, we outline the new policy outlook and what we think it means for the global economy and markets. We also discuss the National People’s Congress in China, with the policy decisions there likely to shape investors’ perceptions of both the outlook in China but also the broader impact on ri…

1
In the balance 30:06

25d ago30:06

30:06

We begin in Ghana, where Islamist militants from Burkina Faso are allegedly using northern Ghana for supplies and medical support, despite denials from Ghanaian authorities. Is Ghana at risk of becoming a safe haven for insurgents? How might this impact regional security? In Nigeria, terrorists have reportedly overtaken the Nagwamase Military Canto…

1
Week Ahead – Crunch Time 18:41

26d ago18:41

18:41

It’s been a busy past week with European Q3 GDP data and an expansionary UK budget, which led to a rise in European and UK bond yields. We also saw China PMI data print a tiny bit better and a pretty solid Q3 GDP growth report in the US. Over the coming week, it’s crunch time in the US with the election finally upon us. We discuss how markets may r…

1
Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion 7:59

30d ago7:59

7:59

The last few weeks have seen spectacular weather in New England, with warm temperatures and blue skies almost every day. By now, we would normally have stored the back-yard furniture inside to prevent it getting ruined over the winter. But instead, on weekend afternoons, Sari and I drowsily read our books in the sunshine with the still-loud chirpin…

1
Hard-pressed 22:04

1M ago22:04

22:04

Nigeria's government has proposed a 5% excise duty on telecom services, gaming, and betting as part of a new tax reform bill. How will this new tax burden affect consumers and businesses, and what could it mean for Nigeria’s digital economy? Next, the Dangote Refinery missed its petrol supply targets, delivering only 148 million litres instead of 5…

1
The Week Ahead - Buckle Up 19:17

1M ago19:17

19:17

This week we witnessed some pretty material moves in markets. There was a rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada and the theme of growth exceptionalism in the US, combined with communication from various Fed officials, has led the market to continue to unwind some of its prior aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. As we look ahead to the com…

1
'Distraction Dividend': Moscow's Aims And Actions In The Middle East 37:11

1M ago37:11

37:11

As it focuses on its war against Ukraine, Russia is also seeking to leverage violence in the Middle East to improve its global standing and condemn the West. The Kremlin is reaping rewards, but it also faces risks posed by its footprint in the volatile region. Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies…

1
Mixed signals 27:46

1M ago27:46

27:46

We begin in Northern Nigeria, where less than a month after Defence Minister Bello Matawalle faced accusations of sponsoring banditry, Bauchi South Senatorial District lawmaker Shehu Umar Buba is facing similar allegations. Though the Muslim Rights Concern has refuted these allegations, how will these accusations affect the lawmaker’s political sta…

1
The Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, UK Public Sector Borrowing and Tokyo CPI 13:35

1M ago13:35

13:35

In this episode, we discuss the upcoming US elections, and how US economic sentiment has been holding up in the second half of the year. In Europe, the focus next week will be on flash PMIs, especially after the ECB noted that they have seen downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Could UK public sector borrowing numbers change the g…

1
Perception And Reality In The War Against Ukraine 24:45

1M ago24:45

24:45

As Moscow's forces press forward and Ukraine holds onto part of Russia's Kursk region, there are new "mutterings" in the West about the prospects for an end to the fighting. Ruth Deyermond, senior lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss the situation on the battlefield and the latest…

1
The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates 11:22

1M ago11:22

11:22

Growing up in Dublin, I had a well-earned reputation as a child of very healthy appetite. At birthday parties, I’d always make sure, at the outset, to get my share of any cocktail sausages, cucumber sandwiches or Rice Krispie treats going around. When it came time for cake and ice cream, I made sure my plate was amply stocked. And I know my mother …

1
Fighting the Godfathers 30:44

2M ago30:44

30:44

First, we head over to Kenya, where Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua faces impeachment over serious allegations, including self-enrichment and inciting ethnic hatred. Is a feud with President Ruto now out in the open? How will this reshape the future of leadership in the country? What will be the effect on the region? Then, we come to Nigeria to d…

1
The Week Ahead - More or Less? 16:17

2M ago16:17

16:17

Central banks remain very much in focus over the coming week, with policy meetings in Europe and across Asia. We’re expecting rate cuts from two of those and the theme of divergence, based on local dynamics, seems very much in play. Some central banks look set to deliver more easing than perhaps would have been expected only a month ago, but some a…

1
Four Banks and the Dollar 11:44

2M ago11:44

11:44

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will publish international trade data for August. The numbers will, undoubtedly, show a deficit – the U.S. has run a trade deficit every year since 1975. This, in turn, implies that the U.S. dollar exchange rate is too high – we buy everyone else’s stuff because it’s cheap; they don’t want to buy ours because it’…

1
Torrents 38:06

2M ago38:06

38:06

In today’s episode, we discuss SBM's Health Preparedness Index for 2024—a yearly report that looks at the state of the healthcare infrastructure across Nigeria. Next, we explore the alarming findings from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which reveals that as of June 2024, the federal government is owed a staggering $6.071…

1
The Week Ahead – The Rate Cut Cycle Is Heating Up 14:38

2M ago14:38

14:38

What we have seen so far this week is markets buoyed by recent announcements regarding China policy stimulus but then troubled by developments in the middle east. Coming up, we expect rate cuts in India, Korea and New Zealand next week, and from the ECB soon after. We are recording this podcast ahead of US Payrolls data which has become an increasi…

1
The Investment Implications of the Wealth Surge 8:49

2M ago8:49

8:49

I have a habit, or so my wife tells me, of staring intently, for minutes at a time, into an open refrigerator, in search of one particular item. When she can no longer stand it, or when the binging of the refrigerator alarm informs the world that its contents are now thawing, she gently asks me what I am looking for and points it out, sitting, as i…

1
Zelenskiy's Trip, Putin's Threat 29:16

2M ago29:16

29:16

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy took his "victory plan" to Biden, Harris, and Trump in a U.S. visit that also included UN speeches. In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued yet another nuclear threat. Analyst and author Mark Galeotti joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss what it all means for the war in Ukraine.…

1
Fight or flight 35:40

2M ago35:40

35:40

First we turn our attention to the Central Bank of Nigeria, which has made headlines by raising its Monetary Policy Rate for the fifth time this year. Next, we’ll discuss Coca-Cola Nigeria Limited and its bottler, Nigeria Bottling Company, which has unveiled a plan to inject $1 billion into the Nigerian economy over the next five years. And finally…

1
The Week Ahead: US NFP, Euro Area Inflation and China PMIs 14:02

2M ago14:02

14:02

As we celebrate our 200th episode, we have a big week coming up in the US with the labour market report. In Europe, the most important data next week is euro area flash inflation, and we discuss whether inflation data may edge the ECB closer to an October rate cut. In Asia, the focus is on China's PMIs and Japanese industrial production. Chapters: …

1
The Investment Implications of a $769,900,000,000 Mistake 6:20

2M ago6:20

6:20

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, commonly known as the BEA, will release revised data on the national income and product accounts going back to the start of 2019. This is an annual process, usually only mildly interesting to economists and ignored by everyone else. However, this year it’s more important since it could help clarify the …

1
Birth pangs 33:30

2M ago33:30

33:30

This week, we look first at the NNPC's revelation that petrol prices will vary across the country—ranging from ₦950 ($0.57) in Lagos to as high as ₦1,019 ($0.62) in Borno—depending on logistics costs. Then, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has alerted Nigerians about potential flooding from the regulated water releases at Cameroon’s…

1
Flash PMIs, SNB, Riksbank and RBA Rate Decisions 13:03

2M ago13:03

13:03

It’s been a busy week in the US, the Fed surprised many Economists by kicking off its cutting cycle with a 50bp cut. Is it a speedy descent for US rates from here? Also coming up this week, Europe is at the center of the action with several important data releases - we have flash PMIs, Spanish and French inflation and central bank meetings in Swede…

1
Previewing the Fed: Easy Does It 7:19

2M ago7:19

7:19

Cutting short-term interest rates from a peak is a little like hauling a piano down a flight of stairs. The operation is best done slowly and with care. The Federal Reserve will probably show some awareness of this in their actions and communications this week. That being said, one of the greatest identifiable dangers to the economy and markets tod…

1
Episodes of Struggle 36:55

2M ago36:55

36:55

Today we discuss the arrest of Joe Ajaero, the leader of the Nigeria Labour Congress. What are the implications of Mr Ajaero's detention for the country's unions and the broader political terrain of the country? Next, a notorious terrorist leader, Bello Turji, has issued a chilling warning to the Hausa people of Northern Nigeria, necessitating a de…

1
Enter the Fed 11:11

2M ago11:11

11:11

Coming up this week, in the US we expect the Fed to commence its easing campaign, with a 25bp move. Across Europe, the focus will be on the Bank of England policy meeting. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan. Chapters: US (01:15), Europe (05:18), Asia (07:54)…

1
The Jobs Mosaic 12:21

3M ago12:21

12:21

On Wednesday of next week, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly embark on its long-anticipated easing cycle. However, whether the first cut in the federal funds rate is 25 or 50 basis points is still very much in doubt. This is a crucial question for the economy and financial markets since a 50 basis point cut might well do more harm than good…

1
Exhausted 37:37

3M ago37:37

37:37

In today's episode, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has hiked the fuel pump price—from ₦617 to ₦897 per litre. This price surge comes just days after the NNPC admitted to owing suppliers over $6 billion. How will this affect Nigerians' daily lives, and is the country any closer to solving its fuel crisis? Next, we look at the health sec…

1
Post Payrolls 15:22

3M ago15:22

15:22

It’s been another interesting week in global markets with equities and commodity prices having another serious wobble, and bond yields declining, surprising many. This week we consider the latest US election polling numbers and what a Trump presidency might mean for economies and markets. We also look towards the coming ECB meeting, which should be…

1
Demographics, Debt, the Dollar and Apocalyptic Assets 13:02

3M ago13:02

13:02

The U.S. working age population is growing relatively slowly. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the U.S. population aged 18 to 64 grew by less than 0.1% over the past year.โดย Dr. David Kelly

1
Devil in the details 33:48

3M ago33:48

33:48

Before diving into this week’s topics, we will take a quick look at SBM’s report on kidnap in Nigeria. Then, we'll examine the sudden resignation of Ahmed Abubakar, the Nigeria Intelligence Agency’s Director General. What's behind this surprising move, and what does it mean for national security? After that, we discuss the latest confrontation betw…

1
Who needs sanity? 34:20

3M ago34:20

34:20

In our first story, we dive into Nigeria’s oil sector, where the Nigerian National Petroleum Company has declared a net profit of ₦3.297 trillion for 2023, its largest ever Naira profit. Is this a cause for celebration? Next, we explore a development involving the Nigerian government as a French court authorises the seizure of three presidential je…

1
US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI 14:25

3M ago14:25

14:25

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Euro area and US inflation data should tee up central banks for more cutting in September. Chapters: US (02:40), Europe (06:36), Asia (11:29)…

1
Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing 7:31

3M ago7:31

7:31

Every August, for more than 40 years now, the Federal Reserve has held a retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It has become an important venue for Fed communications and investors this week will be focused on Jerome Powell’s speech, to be delivered at 10:00AM eastern time (or 8:00AM Wyoming time) on Friday. The topic of this year’s conference is “Reas…

1
A wicked wicket 37:01

3M ago37:01

37:01

The MTN Group is facing a financial storm as it predicts a half-year loss due to the devaluation of the Nigerian naira and operational hurdles in Sudan. With earnings per share plummeting and business activity in Nigeria hitting an eight-month low, we'll explore how these economic shifts reshape the region. Then political drama is unfolding in Nige…

1
Some Do, Some Don’t, Some Will, Some Won’t 19:07

3M ago19:07

19:07

Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host & Australia Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and Charnon Boonnuch, Asia Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. New Zealand and the Philippines join the rate cut pack, while the Fed remains on track to deliver …

1
August Surprise: Ukraine's Incursion Into Russia's Kursk Region 27:29

4M ago27:29

27:29

How big a deal is Kyiv's incursion into the Kursk region? What are Ukraine's goals? And what are the ramifications for Russia? This week, host Steve Gutterman discusses these issues with Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst for Russia at the International Crisis Group.โดย Steve Gutterman

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