Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing

Notes on the Week Ahead

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Why Petra Needs Its People 28:39

10 วันที่แล้ว28:39

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For centuries, members of the B’doul Bedouin tribe lived in the caves around the ancient city of Petra, Jordan. Then, in the 1980s, the government forced the tribe to move in the name of preserving the geological site for tourists. But if the residents are forced to leave, and if their heritage has been permanently changed, then what exactly is being preserved? SHOW NOTES: Meet The Man Living in The Lost City Carved in Stone Jordan: Petra's tourism authority cracks down on Bedouin cave dwellers The tribes paying the brutal price of conservation “There is no future for Umm Sayhoun” Jordan’s Young Bedouins Are Documenting Their Traditions on TikTok Check out Sami's company Jordan Inspiration Tours Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choices…

ประมาณหนึ่งปีที่แล้ว 7:31

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Every August, for more than 40 years now, the Federal Reserve has held a retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It has become an important venue for Fed communications and investors this week will be focused on Jerome Powell’s speech, to be delivered at 10:00AM eastern time (or 8:00AM Wyoming time) on Friday.

The topic of this year’s conference is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy”, a subject that is well worth careful reconsideration. This, no doubt, will be the focus of Chairman Powell’s remarks.

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Notes on the Week Ahead

Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing

Notes on the Week Ahead

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published ประมาณหนึ่งปีที่แล้ว

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#Morgan #Chase #Money #Finance #Investing #Mutual #Morningstar #Gatch #Double #Dip #David #Kelly #George #Trading #Business #Dr David Kelly #Marketing #Insight #Fund #Recess

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Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy 11:41

4 วันที่แล้ว11:41

11:41

One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial market chaos, following the President’s tariff announcement, is different from previous market slumps. Every market selloff is. However, a common thread in all crises is that the best decisions begin with a structured approach to analysis.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Fiscal Fudge 7:35

18 วันที่แล้ว7:35

7:35

I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently elected to go with “cooking”. My experiments included making fudge and my mother dutifully supplied me with sugar, vanilla and helpful advice. However, we possessed no candy thermometer and, as anyone in the fudge-making business will tell you, getting the temperature right is essential. Too hot and you end up with toffee or hard caramel. Too cold and you end up with a grim sludge, which no degree of refrigeration can render palatable. Making fudge is a delicate operation.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Wait and See Economy 12:08

25 วันที่แล้ว12:08

12:08

I was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey creatures at dawn as they wander aimlessly in the middle of the road. When a car or truck bears down on them, they stop and stare. Perhaps they are pondering whether it would be more fun to hop into the woods to their right or gambol off into the field to their left. But, of course, the only important decision is to get out of the road. A “wait and see” attitude could be fatal.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Trouble with Tariffs 5:45

6 weeksที่แล้ว5:45

5:45

I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs. It’s a fair question. Many people who instinctively believe in free trade would still have a hard time in clearly explaining the trouble with tariffs. And since tariffs are likely to be a big issue this week, with the president promising to impose postponed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a new, second 10% tariff on China as of March 4th, it seems like a good time to review the problem.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth 8:11

7 weeksที่แล้ว8:11

8:11

In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annual gain since 2001[1]. Given this, it seems strange to be already talking about slowing population growth. However, the reality is that the gap between births and deaths is continuing to shrink, with almost all of our recent population growth coming from immigration. Going forward, if immigration is dramatically curtailed, overall population growth could turn negative by the middle of the next decade while the working-age population would immediately start to contract. [1] See Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades , U.S. Census Press Release, December 19th, 2024.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty 12:14

7 weeksที่แล้ว12:14

12:14

In the four weeks since he took office, the president has issued an extraordinary number of executive orders, while promising dramatic change across the full reach of the federal government. While these policy moves have broad political, geopolitical and social implications, for investors, the most important concern tariffs, immigration, the federal workforce and the federal budget. The rapid pace of these moves, along with frequent reversals, court challenges and mixed signals on future policy actions, make it difficult for economists to assess their cumulative effects. Also important, and even harder to analyze, is the potential for policy uncertainty to delay business decisions. Much has been said about the potential for the new administration’s policies to add to inflation pressures. However, investors should also consider how these actions, and the uncertainty surrounding them, could slow economic growth.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train 11:35

9 weeksที่แล้ว11:35

11:35

For investors, Europe seems like a train in a station, perpetually gathering steam and loading up for a long-delayed journey, but clearly advertising only a modest pace when it gets under way. Such has been the case for the European economy and, even more so, for European equities for many years. This has, of course, been deeply frustrating for those investing in European stocks, which, while often producing OK returns, have underperformed U.S. stocks in 12 of the last 15 years.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Investment Implications of the Trade War 6:51

10 weeksที่แล้ว6:51

6:51

On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations announced their intention to retaliate. These tariffs threaten to raise prices and slow economic activity across all four countries. While the end game of this trade war remains very uncertain, it has the potential to impact bonds, stocks and exchange rates. For investors, regardless of the early market reaction, the reality of a trade war suggest the need for broad diversification including allocations to real assets and international assets.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing 10:10

11 weeksที่แล้ว10:10

10:10

This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and will look paler still in comparison to the more than 60 executive orders, proclamations and memoranda that have emanated from the White House in the first week of the President’s new term. However, the Fed’s statement and Jay Powell’s press conference could well be of equal importance to financial markets.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates 12:25

11 weeksที่แล้ว12:25

12:25

“Unsustainable!” To quote Inigo Montoya: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means” For decades, journalists, economists, politicians, and central bankers have said that the U.S. federal debt is on an “unsustainable” path. However, it has stayed on that path, climbing from a very manageable $3.3 trillion, or 31.5% of GDP, in fiscal 2001, to $28.3 trillion, or 98.2% of GDP in fiscal 2024.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax 12:22

13 weeksที่แล้ว12:22

12:22

In football, it’s always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or man-to-man? In business or in military maneuvers the same rule applies – keep them guessing. However, in macro-economic management, it is better to make your plans clear. That way businesses can feel more confident in hiring and investing, as can consumers when deciding to buy. It is one of the reasons the Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (or SEP) and so frequently repeats its determination to achieve 2% inflation.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Stability and Extremes 10:20

14 weeksที่แล้ว10:20

10:20

Over the holiday season, we got to spend some time with our very charming granddaughter and, as a bonus, I am now fully re-acquainted with all the verses of “The Wheels on the Bus”. As we enter 2025, the American economy is rather like an old school bus – slow but steady, reliable and resilient. It generally moves forward. However, it is not invulnerable. The wheels of the bus are being pulled off the ground by ballooning asset prices. The new driver of the bus may or may not try some dangerous policy maneuvers. The wipers of the bus may be obscuring obstacles in the road ahead. And the people on the bus, instead of spreading out and sitting down, are all standing up, crowded to one side so that if something does go wrong, there could be significant injuries.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy) 7:46

17 weeksที่แล้ว7:46

7:46

When testifying to the Senate Banking Committee back in 1987, the newly-appointed Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, provided some insight into his views on communication: “Since becoming a central banker”, he said, “I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” His successors have generally tried to be more open with regard to both their opinions and their intentions. However, there are times, when the Fed will want to communicate to financial markets without piquing the interest of either the general public or the administration.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Initial Conditions 11:05

18 weeksที่แล้ว11:05

11:05

Many years ago, I worked for the Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis at the State of Michigan and, from time to time, Saul Hymans and his colleagues from the University of Michigan would visit the state government in Lansing to discuss the latest output from their macro economic models of the U.S. and Michigan economies. As they started into their presentation, I was always eager to hear about their forecast. However, I was rather puzzled about how much time they devoted to the current quarter. I mean they had a big macroeconomic forecasting model – couldn’t we just skip the present and move on to the future?…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Irish Lessons 8:44

19 weeksที่แล้ว8:44

8:44

This week will be full of market-moving economic data. We expect purchasing manager surveys and light-vehicle sales to indicate steady demand in November, as investors await Friday’s jobs report. Recent data on unemployment claims point to continued momentum and payroll growth should rebound from October’s meagre reading which was suppressed by both weather and strike activity. Markets will also be focused on wage growth, with futures still only assigning a 64% probability of a December Fed rate cut. That being said, any decision on a December rate cut will also depend on next week’s CPI report and, whether they admit it or not, the Fed’s own quiet assessment of the potential for the new Administration’s agenda to reignite inflation. It will likely be some months, therefore, before investors can more accurately assess the potential path for economic growth, corporate profits, inflation and interest rates. As we note in our year-ahead outlook, while we have emerged from a cyclical storm, we have entered a policy fog.…