In this week's Weekly Market Recap portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I talk about the round-trip the stock market has made since the Election.Is the rally likely to resume? Or was the exuberance short-lived?We also talk bonds, the recent inflation numbers, Lance's recent trades, and the wisdom of conducting year-end planning on your portfolio bef…

Well, the election is over and we have a clear victor.What kind of economy is President-elect Trump inheriting? And what impact on it are his policies likely to have?And what does this mean for investors? Where do the opportunities, as well as the risks, lie?To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined again by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief …

The markets continue to surge to all-time record highs, driven in no small part by expectations of a massive productivity boom enabled by artificial intelligence, otherwise known as AICorporate America and Wall Street are clearly shrugging off the warnings that science fiction gave us about AI taking command of the world's technology to eradicate h…

Today's guest expert wrote in her latest newsletter:"This month, animal spirits surged on bets that artificial intelligence and central bank rate cuts can solve the problem of spreading insolvency."She is highly dubious that they can.And if indeed they cannot, what then lies ahead for the economy, for the markets, and for investors?To find out we'l…

Stocks and bonds both surged higher once the election was called for President-elect Trump this week.Technically and capital flow-wise, there are a number of reasons to expect stocks to keep running higher to year end and into 2025, though that won't happen without some pullbacks along the ways, counsels portfolio manager Lance Roberts.This week al…

What impact (if any) will the Trump victory have on Federal Reserve policy?Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers.--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money…

To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here.And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career.We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressm…

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in July, he shared that he had just closed out all his longs and moved to cash.That moved paid off, as the S&P fell over 300 points in the following few weeks.Stocks rebounded after the sell-off and have powered higher up to today, now back near all-time highs.So what does his Technic…

In this week's Market Recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the drivers of this week's turbulence in stocks (especially the Magnificent 7 tech stocks), the disappointing payrolls numbers, the impact of the upcoming presidential election as well as the resumption of buybacks on markets, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades.WORRIED …

The stock market has hit another all-time high this week, and Wall Street's profits for 2024 are off the charts -- nearly TWICE as high as last year's.Meanwhile, the wealth divide in America continues to widen as average folks struggle with the post-COVID surge in cost of living and record high interest rates on their debt.What does this growing di…

We've had two excellent years of returns in the stock market. Can that winning streak continue into 2025?And in less than a week, we should know who the next President of the United States is. How should investors alter their position based on who the winner is.For answers, we're going to find out how the big players -- those managing tens of billi…

We find ourselves in a time of transition, one that may increasingly be later described as upheaval.In a week, we'll have a new US President, which will bring change both to the US and to geopolitics.We already have a new interest rate regime as the world's major central banks have pivoted back to cutting rates.And we may be seeing the start of a n…

It's certainly an interesting time in the markets.The world's major central banks have returned to cutting interest rates. Yet bond yields are rising on the long end.Meanwhile, risk on assets are in rally mode. Stocks are back at all-time highs.Yet so is gold, the grand-daddy of risk off assets.To make sense of all of this, we're fortunate to speak…

The S&P has been on a tear of late, rising on a weekly basis for six consecutive weeks.That kind of win streak doesn't happen very often.And...it ended yesterday.Not only did stocks close down for the week (slightly), but they broke out of the rising wedge technical pattern they've been trading in -- to the downside.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts …

When today's guest was last on this program back in May, she made the somewhat heretical prediction that when the Fed started cutting interest rates, it would set off a chain of events that were likely to prove more restrictive than its tightening policy.Well, here we are 6 months later, and the Fed has indeed started cutting interest rates and yet…

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceWell, the Fall Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success.That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insi…

Pretty much every poll shows the economy remains the #1 voter issue in the upcoming US presidential election. Many of these same polls show immigration and border security as the second most important issue.Concerned by reports of a surge of undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally in recent years, many voters worry about the economic,…

Bullish signals were everywhere this week. The S&P broke above it rising wedge. It retested support & then made new highs. And buy signals on both a daily and a weekly basis have been recently triggered.All this bodes well for a strong end to the year, predicts portfolio manager Lance Roberts...except that in the immediate term, stocks are looking …

When today's guest was on this channel back in March, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years.And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead.Well, here in the fina…

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comBanking expert Chris Whalen fears the Federal Reserve cut interest rates too soon. As a result inflation will remain sticky, the Fed will likely be forced to start expanding its balance sheet soon, and …

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year.Well, as we prepare to enter 2025, and with it a new US presidential administration I might add, it helps to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful.High on…

In 2024 so far, stocks have had one of the best years in decades. And that's on top of a great year in 2023.Bulls are obviously cheering this, but how long can the party continue?Stocks are richly priced here.And if earnings don't start growing aggressively, at some point, prices will have to correct, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.That said…

2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't.2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't.How is 2025 shaping up to look like?For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million B…

2024 has been a good year for the bulls.And with the world's largest economies now back into easing mode, both monetarily and fiscally, does that mean 2025 will be another winning year for the longs?To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of …

Gold has been one of the best performing assets in 2024 so far.It's up over 27% since the start of the year and recently hit a record high.And with the central banks of the worlds largest economies -- the US, China and the EU -- now all cutting interest rates, will that add further fuel to gold's breakout?For answers to all things gold, silver and …

While there is a "tsunami" of liquidity currently flowing that can power stocks higher into year end, in the near term, stocks are looking over-bought and a (short-term) sell signal was triggered this week says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.So between now and the election, be prepared for stocks to trade sluggishly and/or weaken.Other than that, …

While much of Wall Street's focus over past recent years has been on the Big US Tech stocks, aka the Magnificent 7, there are an increasing number of seismic developments happening internationally investors need to be aware of.For example, emerging market stocks have positively trounced tech stocks since June.And to name just a few others:- China i…

An interview with RANE's Middle East geopolitical analyst to address:- The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel- What led to Tuesday's missile attack?- What do you expect to happen from here?- What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets?- If things escalate, how concerned should those living in the West be?- …

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of having a second appearance of one of the most respected capital allocato…

Few things are more valuable in life than the food we eat and the soil that grows it.So today, we have the great honor of talking with Joel Salatin. Named "the most famous farmer in America", Joel has spent his career advocating for sustainable farming practices, and pioneering models that show how food can be grown & raised in ways that:- are rege…

In the wake of interest rates cuts now coming from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of China, could the stock market experience a melt-up to S&P 600 -- or higher -- by the end of the year?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks it's quite possible, especially given stocks' recent technical breakout.We talk in depth about that in this week's…

The real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action.Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors.Which key turning points are in …

The US housing market remains in uncharted territory.Median -- not average -- existing home prices hit another all-time high last month, yet transaction volumes are at lows not seen for decades.And potentially changing the game from here is that mortgage rates are likely headed downwards now that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates.We're …

In many ways, investors are dealing with a lot of conflicting signals right now.It seems that nearly every day, we're seeing signs that the consumer is weakening under the high cost of living, yet financial markets are back trading at all-time highs.Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is telling us the economy is strong, yet it just cut interest rates by…

The Fed dropped the Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis point this week, ushering in a new monetary regime. Investors need to the know that the playbook has changed.Delivering what sounded like a "mission accomplished" press conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is projecting confidence that inflation is nearly beaten, unemployment remains low, …

There's a lot of change in the air right now: in the economy, the markets, and of course with the fast-approaching US election.There's so much change currently underway that today's guest titled his latest report: The Macro Winds Are Shifting.How exactly? What will the likely repercussions be?And how should investors consider positioning intelligen…

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He also takes live Q&A from viewers.--- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

We're going to do something a little different in today's video.This Thoughtful Money channel is all about wealth-building. So makes sense that we focus most of our attention on money.But money is a means to an end. It's not an end in and of itself. No one's goal in life is to die atop a big pile of cash -- instead we hope to use our money to bette…

As today's guest rightfully often repeats "Energy is life"Without it, there is no economy. No means to power the systems society depends on.And, like it or not, the world still runs on hydrocarbons -- most especially oil.Well, oil is in an interesting place right now. It's starting to become cheap again. After trading near $120/barrell following th…

Well, the correction that was underway last week appears to have been short-lived.Stocks bounced hard this week, with the S&P up over 200 points.We're at an important point technically, where the current momentum needs to continue to affirm the rally. If not, and we get a triple top, there's a decent chance stocks could then resume a downward slide…

Total US federal debt now stands at $35.34 Trillion, now exceeding US annual GDP by $10 trillion.It has been growing at a faster rate than GDP for many decades. That dynamic shows no signs of reversing or even moderating.And on top of the federal debt lies the borrowing of households, businesses, financial institutions and state & local governments…

After a long slumber, volatility has started returning to the financial markets over the past month.Why? And is this just a brief episode? Or the start of a more turbulent era for investors?For answers, we welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twi…

Many consumers are still suffering annual double-digit increases in living essentials. So even though inflation measured as CPI is now reported to be under 3%, that flies in the face of the much higher cost increases real people experience in their daily lives.This is causing investors to start worrying: Will the cost of living outpace my ability t…

Stocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September. They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower.Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecti…

This interview comes hot on the heels of the one I just released with demographer Neil Howe in which we discussed the current period of extreme volatility and change -- which he calls the 4th Turning -- that he sees the world descending into.Long simmering issues are now at the point of boiling over, be it economic opportunity, crime, free speech, …

The fault lines that divide our society are widening.The K-shaped recovery that we've seen since COVID has rewarded asset owners at the expense of everyone else.And millennials and Gen Zers, who are losing faith in being able to achieve a middle class lifestyle, look with increasing bitterness at the relative prosperity of the Boomer generation.The…

REGISTER for Farmland LP's free webinar on Sep 4 @7pmET by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland.It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing p…

The markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts.And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks.Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are ros…

Now that it seems the Fed has officially pivoted, what will lower interest rates mean for the economy and financial markets?Will they be enough to keep recession at bay and prevent a further rise in unemployment?What will the trillions of investor capital currently parked in T-bills and money markets go if the yields on those assets go down?For a t…

Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting.In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journa…