106. ANALYSIS: Stephan Fruehling on Russia’s nuclear threats, deterrence, China’s strategic interests and the war in Ukraine

War in Ukraine: Update from Kyiv

Stephan Fruehling, Professor at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, discusses nuclear threats and the war in Ukraine: Would Putin use a nuclear weapon? How can Russia be deterred? And how might the threat of nuclear weapons use - shift the calculus for China - as well as for small and middle powers?

"Nuclear weapons actually aren't really that useful to win on the battefield where you have hugely dispersed forces...they're not going to shift the overall balance. What would shift the overall balance is if Russia could use nuclear coercion to stop the West from supplying weapons to Ukraine. Nuclear use would likely harden Western resolve… but Putin hasn’t been that good at reading Western response in the conflict overall."

Stephan Fruehling and Andrew O'Neill (eds) on Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation: Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century

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