E104: Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!; Telegram’s $30b valuation!; SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight; Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz? | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 15, 2024

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

00:07 | Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!
- $1 trillion in 2023 total payment volume, +25% vs 2022
- Stripe 15yrs vs PayPal 23yrs to get to $1t
- Estimated $17b in 2023 revenue, positive cash flow
- $65b Feb 2024 tender, 3.8x revenue multiple is a steal
02:19 | Telegram’s $30b valuation!
- 900m monthly active users, +80% vs 2021; on track for 1b users by Dec 2024
- "hundreds of millions of dollars" from advertising and subscriptions revenue
- $30b valuation from investors
- Seeking IPO to maintain independence and drive company valuation
04:12 | SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight
- Starship is 400 feet tall, powered by 33 rockets
- 5x payload of current Falcon9 rocket with lower cost per launch; incremental revenue AND profit
- Starlink estimated to have a $103b valuation ($3.4b in annual recurring revenue?)
06:24 | Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz?
- Steven Mnuchin, former US Treasury Secretary, seeks to buy TikTok
- US government is reviewing a bill that would require ByteDance to divest TikTok US biz
- TikTok US has 170m users
- ByteDance 2023 revenue is $120b (+20% vs 2022) and a $268b valuation, only a 2.4x revenue multiple (LOW!)
- TikTok US has $16b of 2023 revenue, applying Meta revenue multiple (9.58x) it’s a $153b valuation business
- Massive valuation unlock position for TikTok US by getting out of the ByteDance negative overhang?
09:09 | Pre-IPO +3.28% for week, +3.23% for last 1yr
- Week winners: Chime +28.6%, eToro +21.9%, ScaleAI +20.5%, Ramp +12.3%, Flexport +7.2%
- Week losers: Consensys -9.8%, OpenAI -4.5%, ByteDance -3.1%, Rippling -2.1%, Chainalysis -1.7%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $276b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $103b, Stripe $68b, Databricks $49b