Why markets rallied on reciprocal tariffs; Germans to vote in the shadow of Trump, Xi and Putin

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here.

The episode’s main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone’s biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country’s stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

Analysis and data referenced in this episode:

Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implications
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implications

German economy post-election: from bad to not much better
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-better

Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitor

The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry