#186 David Woo, Economist Who Nailed 2016 And 2020 Election Outcomes, Explains Why The Market Has The Trump Trades Wrong

The Julia La Roche Show

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 186 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics, including the attempted assassination on former President Trump and why the market has the so-called Trump trades all wrong.

This episode was recorded on Friday, July 19.

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo

01:25 Big picture macro view

03:00 Geopolitical update

04:10 Trump trades

06:53 Election is not over yet

08:01 Assassination attempt and the risk of another attempt

11:15 JD Vance

15:20 Finding a replacement to Biden

18:45 2025 will have nothing to do with 2017

22:44 Challenges in financing tax cuts, tariffs, and potential for a global trade war

25:50 Collecting taxes on big tech companies doing business outside the US would be bearish for stocks

28:00 Trump will face a massive budget deficit and why he's not that bullish for bitcoin

28:50 Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0 economy

30:30 If Trump wins, he'll inherit a huge mess from Biden

35:41 Immigration

40:31 The ultimate Trump trades are defensive trades

44:30 Betting on a recession

50:37 Generative AI is a bubble that will trigger a recession

56:55 Parting thoughts