October 3rd, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

Top Lines

• U.S. government shutdown continues; September non-farm payrolls will not be released. Markets pivot to ISM Services and central-bank remarks.
• U.S. President says he’s considering taxpayer rebates of $1,000–$2,000 funded by tariff revenue; separate reports point to cash support for farmers using existing resources.
• China launches a trade-barrier probe into Mexico’s tariffs, signaling potential countermeasures.

FX

• Dollar softer in a tight range as the data blackout shifts focus to ISM Services and Fed speakers.
• Euro modestly firmer after mixed but minor PMI revisions.
• Sterling slightly higher despite a downward revision to UK services PMI, with corporates seen deferring decisions until after the Autumn budget.
• Yen underperforms after BoJ Governor Ueda re-emphasizes the need to maintain an accommodative stance; weekend LDP leadership vote in view.
• AUD and NZD edge up alongside firm base metals.

Commodities

• Crude oil’s brief bounce on Gaza-plan headlines faded; prices drift in thin newsflow.
• Gold pauses after recent swings, holding near recent ranges ahead of ISM Services.
• Copper extends gains toward ~$10,850/t; base metals broadly supported by a softer dollar and supply considerations.

Trade/Tariffs

• White House exploring tariff-funded consumer rebates; farm support under discussion through existing accounts with additional tariff-linked aid contemplated.
• Beijing opens a trade-barrier investigation into Mexico’s tariff regime and vows measures to defend Chinese firms’ interests.

Geopolitics

• Middle East: Hamas tells mediators it needs more time and seeks changes to elements of the U.S. Gaza plan.
• Europe: Munich Airport briefly closed overnight after drone sightings; later reopened.
• Russia-Ukraine: President Putin warns seizure of vessels would heighten risk of sea confrontations; says potential U.S. Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine would be dangerous and escalate tensions without changing the battlefield.

What to Watch Next

• U.S.: Final Composite PMI (Sep), ISM Services (Sep); Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson).
• Europe/UK: ECB’s Schnabel; BoE’s Bailey.
• Policy: Any updates on U.S. shutdown duration, tariff-rebate discussions, and farmer support programs.
• Geopolitics: Signals from Gaza mediation and any escalation around Russia-Ukraine maritime risks.