Episode 61: CMBS & CRE CLOs: What the Data Gets Right (and Misses) with Michael Haas, CRED iQ

The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

CMBS issuance has roared back, yet distress, especially in office keeps building. In this episode, Michael Haas, founder & CEO of Credit IQ, joins us to separate signal from noise across CMBS and CRE CLOs. We dig into what the data shows right now, why CMBS has been winning share from the GSEs, and how five-year structures and bank scrutiny are shaping borrower behavior. Mike explains his firm’s definition of distress (special servicing and/or delinquency), the flight-to-quality dynamic in office, and the early warning triggers their team watches: occupancy drops, DSCR trends, tenant downsizes, and debt-yield thresholds. We also unpack details behind headline cases like Worldwide Plaza and Times Square retail, why small rate cuts won’t fix maturity walls, and where resolutions are getting stuck. The team wraps with a positive scenario that would mark a true market turning point.

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