101. Precursor to Victory: Understanding the Operational Environment with Mr. Ian Sullivan

The Convergence - An Army Mad Scientist Podcast

[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist is pleased to publish its 500^th post! Since its inception on 09 November 2017, the Mad Scientist Laboratory has continuously sought to explore the Operational Environment (OE) and the changing character of warfare on behalf of the U.S. Army. Given this enduring mission, it’s fitting that this milestone post features the highlights from our latest episode of The Convergence podcast. Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Ian Sullivan, Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence (DCSINT) G-2, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), to discuss the TRADOC G-2’s newly published The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations.

The OE underpins how the U.S. Army is organized, trained, equipped, and operates — it is foundational in ensuring the Army’s mission success — fighting and winning our Nation’s wars. This latest OE assessment focuses on how our adversaries are learning and adapting how they fight from recent and on-going conflicts around the globe (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Gaza, and the Gulf of Aden). It describes the twelve conditions that contribute to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) and five resulting implications for the U.S. Army.

This new OE assessment is central to how the U.S. Army integrates the threat within our Leadership Development Training and Education system, our doctrine, and our modernization efforts across the DOTMLPF-P spectrum of capabilities. In preparing for LSCO against our pacing and acute threats (China and Russia, respectively), it represents the “gold standard” for which the Army must ready itself as a “precursor to victory.” Any and everyone associated with defending this great Nation should familiarize themselves with its contents — Read on!]

Mr. Ian Sullivan is the Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, G-2, TRADOC. He holds a BA from Canisius University in Buffalo, New York, an MA from Georgetown University’s BMW Center for German and European Studies in Washington, D.C., and was a Fulbright Fellow at the Universität Potsdam in Potsdam, Germany. A career civilian intelligence officer, Mr. Sullivan has served with the Office of Naval Intelligence; Headquarters, U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army; the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) at the National Counterterrorism Center; the Central Intelligence Agency; and TRADOC. He is a member of the Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service and was first promoted to the senior civilian ranks in 2013 as a member of the ODNI’s Senior National Intelligence Service. Mr. Sullivan is a frequent and valued contributor to both the Mad Scientist Laboratory and The Convergence podcast.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Sullivan to discuss the newly released The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations, the twelve conditions that contribute to LSCO, and the five implications for the U.S. Army and the larger Joint Force. The following bullet points highlight the key takeaways from our conversation:

• While the Army continues to study conflicts from around the globe illustrating aspects of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO), TRADOC’s updated Operational Environment (OE) describes LSCO through the lens of our adversaries, highlighting what they are learning.This foundational document departs from previous OE assessments’ focus on the broad capabilities and environmental factors (e.g., technologies and demographics) to a threats-based focus that serves as the center point for integrating threat knowledge across the spectrum of doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy (DOTMLPF-P) capabilities.

• This new OE describes twelve conditions that contribute to LSCO and five resulting implications. Several LSCO conditions highlight threat actors’ abilities to challenge the Army through anti-access/area denial, potential use of weapons of mass destruction, and threats to the U.S. homeland. Additional conditions speak to concepts highlighted in FM 3-0, Operations — multidomain threats on an increasingly transparent battlefield, the proliferation of uncrewed systems, the impact of information operations, increased lethality, and the potential for dense urban warfare.

• The new OE also assesses possible implications for the Army that may result in organizational, training, or equipment changes. Among these is the relationship between maneuver, fires, and protection as a defense from overhead observation and precision fires, the dichotomy that exists between the art and science of war, understanding annihilation versus attrition, and the paramount requirement for rapid adaptation. Additionally, the assessment recognizes the warfighting advantage of highly trained Soldiers and Leaders.

• Everyone will benefit from reading this assessment — from Soldiers across the Army to fellow Service members of the Joint Force and our Allies and Partners. No matter where you are within the DoD, the OE underpins everything that you do professionally on a daily basis. It is critical for the Army to understand how our adversaries are preparing for LSCO and the full weight of its associated conditions and implications.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 22 August 2024, when we sit down with “Wolfgang Hagarty” (a nom-de-guerre) to discuss the on-going war in Ukraine, the rapidly evolving Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)/Counter-UAS fight, and the overarching impacts of technological innovation on the changing character of warfare.

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations.

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:

Know Your Enemy: Army Doctrine Starts with the Threat and associated podcast, with General Gary M. Brito, Colonel Rich Creed (USA-Ret.), and Mr. Ian Sullivan

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore

Insights from the Israel-Hamas War and associated podcast, with LTC Kenneth Hardy

Rapid Adaptation

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

War Laid Bare, by Matthew Ader

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics

Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target, by Team Sullivan’s Travels

Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage by Ian Sullivan

WMD Threat: Now and in the Future

Innovation at the Edge and associated podcast

Rapid Adaptation