Deterring by Denial in Asia

Net Assessment

Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Michèle Flournoy’s recent Foreign Affairs article about how to prevent war in Asia by reinforcing deterrence against China. They discuss the importance of senior Democrats placing renewed emphasis on Asia, and ask what this might mean in light of the likely downward pressure on the defense budget. Chris asks whether the strategy is too reliant on U.S. power projection rather than allied anti-access/area denial capabilities. Melanie questions why the United States hasn’t adjusted more quickly to focus on Asia. And Zack notes that some U.S. allies are making important defense strategy shifts, partially prompted by fears of U.S. disengagement.

Links

• Michèle Flournoy, “How to Prevent a War in Asia: The Erosion of American Deterrence Raises the Risk of Chinese Miscalculation,” Foreign Affairs, June 18, 2020
• Heather Conley and Kathleen Hicks, “Pentagon action to withdraw from Germany benefits our adversaries,” The Hill, Aug. 4, 2020
• Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Martin, and Reid J. Epstein, “Trump Floats an Election Delay, and Republicans Shoot It Down,” The New York Times, July 30, 2020
• Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, "Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia," Washington Quarterly, Winter 2020
• Steven Erlanger, “Turkish Aggression Is NATO’s ‘Elephant in the Room,’” New York Times, Aug. 3, 2020
• Patrick Chevallereau, “The Worm Is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO,” RUSI, July 31, 2020
• Patrick Porter, The False Promise of Liberal Order: Nostalgia, Delusion and the Rise of Trump (Polity, 2020)