Why Fiscal Policy Is What Really Matters For Investors | Kevin Muir

Hidden Forces

In Episode 407 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Macro Tourist's Kevin Muir about the power of fiscal spending and why fiscal austerity and trade tariffs will lead to lower asset prices, U.S. equity market underperformance, and a falling U.S. dollar.

Kevin and Demetri spend the first hour of this podcast discussing the importance of fiscal policy and why government spending has been one of the biggest sources of outperformance for investors in the last five years. They discuss why that's the case, why the effects of fiscal policy continue to be overlooked and discounted relative to monetary policy, and what this means going forward if we take the Trump team at his word about wanting to reduce the deficit and scale back on fiscal spending.

In the second hour, Muir and Kofinas dig even deeper into the fiscal spending implications for U.S. equity and bond markets, concerns about rotation risk into global equities, the investment opportunities in Europe and Asia, downside risks to the US dollar, the China gold put, and much more.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 03/24/2025