Economic Troubles Easing Slightly - New Harvard Harris Poll

Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore and decipher the findings of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted from December 14-15, 2022, among 1,851 registered voters. Key takeaways:
Nearly two-thirds of voters believe Twitter shadow-banned users and engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election. Seventy percent also want new national laws protecting users from corporate censorship.
Joe Biden’s approval rating remains steady at 42% as two-thirds of Americans think inflation is still increasing. Ron DeSantis continues his ascent as the poll shows him defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup for the first time.

AMERICANS THINK INFLATION IS INCREASING AND WILL LINGER

• 66% of voters think inflation is increasing, and 61% of voters think inflation will continue for at least another year.
• But Americans see economic troubles easing slightly: the percentage of voters who think the economy is heading in the right track and who are optimistic about their lives next year both increased by 3 points.
• Voters are split on whether Biden’s policies caused inflation.

IT'S NOW A TWO-WAY GOP RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND DESANTIS

• Trump is still the GOP frontrunner in an open field: 48% of GOP voters would choose him in a primary, compared to 25% for DeSantis.
• But in a GOP head-to-head, DeSantis defeats Trump by 4 points if GOP-leaning Independent voters are included; Trump wins the head-to-head by 10 points among only GOP voters.
• For the first time, the poll shows DeSantis defeating Biden in a 2024 matchup, by 4 points; Trump would also defeat Biden by 5 points.

VOTERS BELIEVE TWITTER ENGAGED IN POLITICAL CENSORSHIP AND ARE ROOTING FOR ELON MUSK

• Americans believe in the Twitter Files revelations: 64% think Twitter was secretly shadow banning users, and 64% also think Twitter engaged in political censorship during the 2020 election.
• Americans like Elon Musk: 61% think Musk is trying to clean up Twitter from abuses, and his personal favorability is 8 points above water.
• 70% of voters, including strong majorities across the political spectrum, support new national laws protecting internet users from corporate censorship.

AMERICANS THINK ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS A SERIOUS ISSUE BUT DON'T KNOW THE NUMBERS

• Voters are concerned about the effects of Biden’s immigration policies: 67% think they have encouraged illegal immigration, and 57% think they are increasing the flow of drugs and crime.
• Americans are unfamiliar with the extent of illegal immigration: 64% correctly said the number of illegal border crossings has increased under Biden, but the median voter underestimated that number by a factor of 10 (250-500 thousand vs. 2-3 million).
• Two-thirds of Americans want Biden to issue stricter policies to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants, when told the actual number of illegal crossings in the last year (over 2.75 million).