When Doves Cry?: 2024 Market Outlook with Jason Trennert

FEG Insight Bridge

Join FEG CIO Greg Dowling and Jason Trennert, Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas, as they discuss the investment outlook of 2024. Listen as they explore economic trends, market leadership, potential rate cuts, inflation challenges, and the impact of the upcoming presidential election.

Listen to this explorative dialogue that spans the broad economic landscape, then dive into the specific nuances that shape the market outlook for the year ahead. Will inflation rear its ugly head once again? Will potential Fed rate cuts satisfy the expectations of investors? As the discussion unfolds, explore the global rise of populism and its possible implications, particularly in the context of upcoming elections and geopolitical challenges; and uncover the ongoing debate between active and passive investing, hedge funds, and private equity.
Key Takeaways

• Historically, economic soft landings are rare, and inflation typically comes in waves.
• The Federal Reserve aims to remain independent from politics, balancing addressing political pressures and maintaining credibility with the market.
• The markets are probably overestimating the amount and frequency of Fed rate cuts.
• Which party occupies the White House does not have a material impact on stock market performance. However, economic performance prior to election does heavily influence voters.
• What we experienced with the “Magnificent Seven” in terms of market concentration and the contribution to index performance was highly unusual. It is also uncommon that the former market leaders of the past bull market lead the next.
• Due to a changing regime, we may be at peak passive and the golden days of private equity may be in the past.

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1. Introduction (00:00:00)

2. Episode Introduction (00:00:30)

3. Background on Jason Trennert and Strategas (00:01:23)

4. The Mag 7 and Unusual Market Trends (00:05:22)

5. Understanding Economic Cycles (00:09:37)

6. The Waves of Inflation and Rate Cut Impacts (00:13:20)

7. Playing Politics and the Fed’s Independence (00:17:31)

8. Market Trends in Presential Election Cycles (00:20:20)

9. The Dynamics of Global Defense Spending (00:22:03)

10. Navigating International Markets and Active vs. Passive Investing (00:27:12)

11. Is the Golden Age of Private Equity Over? (00:31:46)

12. Predicted Market Surprises for 2024 (00:34:14)

13. Closing Remarks with Jason Trennert (00:36:45)