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Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions
Manage episode 279647710 series 2837265
Will SpaceX land people on Mars in the next decade? Will North Korea give up their nuclear weapons? Will your friend turn up to dinner?
Spencer Greenberg, founder of ClearerThinking.org has a process for working out such real life problems.
In this conversation from 2018, Spencer walks us through how to reason through difficult questions more accurately, and when we should expect to be overconfident or underconfident.
Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interviewThis episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on August 7, 2018. Some related episodes include:
• #7 – Julia Galef on making humanity more rational, what EA does wrong, and why Twitter isn’t all bad
• #11 – Dr Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm.
• #15 – Prof Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it’s wise to defer to the wise
• #30 – Dr Eva Vivalt on how little social science findings generalize from one study to another
• #40 – Katja Grace on forecasting future technology & how much we should trust expert predictions.
• #48 – Brian Christian on better living through the wisdom of computer science
• #78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and measuring some of the most important drivers of AI progress
Series produced by Keiran Harris.
14 ตอน
Manage episode 279647710 series 2837265
Will SpaceX land people on Mars in the next decade? Will North Korea give up their nuclear weapons? Will your friend turn up to dinner?
Spencer Greenberg, founder of ClearerThinking.org has a process for working out such real life problems.
In this conversation from 2018, Spencer walks us through how to reason through difficult questions more accurately, and when we should expect to be overconfident or underconfident.
Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interviewThis episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on August 7, 2018. Some related episodes include:
• #7 – Julia Galef on making humanity more rational, what EA does wrong, and why Twitter isn’t all bad
• #11 – Dr Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm.
• #15 – Prof Tetlock on how chimps beat Berkeley undergrads and when it’s wise to defer to the wise
• #30 – Dr Eva Vivalt on how little social science findings generalize from one study to another
• #40 – Katja Grace on forecasting future technology & how much we should trust expert predictions.
• #48 – Brian Christian on better living through the wisdom of computer science
• #78 – Danny Hernandez on forecasting and measuring some of the most important drivers of AI progress
Series produced by Keiran Harris.
14 ตอน
ทุกตอน
×1 One: Holden Karnofsky on times philanthropy transformed the world & Open Phil's plan to do the same 2:36:04
1 Two: Dr Toby Ord on why the long-term future matters more than anything else & what to do about it 2:10:32
1 Three: Alexander Berger on improving global health and wellbeing in clear and direct ways 2:53:44
1 Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions 2:17:12
1 Five: Prof Will MacAskill on moral uncertainty, utilitarianism & how to avoid being a moral monster 1:52:46
1 Six: Ajeya Cotra on worldview diversification and how big the future could be 2:56:27
1 Seven: Prof Tetlock on why accurate forecasting matters for everything, and how you can do it better 2:17:25
1 Eight: Prof Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness, population ethics, & harnessing the brainpower of academia to tackle the most important research questions 2:48:33
1 Nine: Benjamin Todd on the key ideas of 80,000 Hours 2:57:13
1 Ten: Benjamin Todd on the core of effective altruism and how to argue for it 1:22:37
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