CropGPT - Maize - Week 39

CropGPT - Podcast for Soft Commodities

Global Maize Market Weekly Summary: Key Highlights for September 29, 2024

• Brazil: Corn prices are trending upward, with averages around R$ 59.90 per bag in Rio Grande do Sul. However, exports have declined sharply, down 28.4% from last year, totaling 4.7 million tons in the first half of September. This reduction is part of a broader decline in Brazil’s projected 2024 corn exports, expected to fall to 36 million tons compared to 55 million tons in 2023. Domestically, planting is progressing, with Rio Grande do Sul at 51% of planned areas by September 22.
• United States: Corn exports to China have significantly decreased by 29%, totaling just 2.77 million tons from January to August 2024. However, U.S. exports to Mexico showed a notable sale of 180,000 tons. Domestically, Texas is nearing completion of its corn harvest, with 80% of the harvest finished by mid-September. Regional weather variations and input cost changes continue to impact yields.
• China: Corn imports from Brazil and the U.S. have drastically declined in 2024, dropping from 8.7 million tons in 2023 to just 3.3 million tons. With record harvests of 292 million tons expected for the 2024/25 season, China is becoming more self-sufficient, reducing its dependency on imports and influencing global maize market dynamics.
• Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe is facing severe challenges in maize production due to adverse climatic conditions and economic difficulties, leading to reduced agricultural output and increased food insecurity. The nation requires significant food aid to address these challenges.
• Romania: Persistent droughts have decimated maize production in Romania, resulting in drastically lowered forecasts for the 2024/2025 marketing year. USDA projections now estimate production at just 7.8 million tons, a sharp decline from 18.6 million tons in 2018. This reflects broader maize production declines across the European Union, expected to be down by 2% compared to previous forecasts.

The global maize market is shaped by these diverse challenges, from climatic conditions and local policies to shifts in international trade, each playing a crucial role in influencing market stability.

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