Cocoa and Ivory Coast: The story leading the crisis to in 2023/2024

CropGPT - Podcast for Soft Commodities

This episode is focusing on Côte d'Ivoire, producing nearly 40% of the global cocoa supply.

Côte d'Ivoire produces 2 million metric tons of cocoa annually, predominantly grown by smallholder farmers in regions like San Pedro and Abidjan.

However, this lifeline for the country's economy is facing significant headwinds. Over the past 20 years, the country's cocoa yield has declined from a peak of 700kg per hectare in 2000 to just 500kg per hectare in 2022. Climate change, deforestation, pests, and political instability have all contributed to this decline, creating a vicious cycle of reduced yields leading to further deforestation as farmers seek more fertile land.

Other major cocoa producers, such as Ghana, Indonesia, and Ecuador, face their own challenges, but none on the scale seen in Côte d'Ivoire. Ghana, known for its quality cocoa, produces around 883,652 metric tons annually and benefits from strong governmental support through the Ghana Cocoa Board. Indonesia, producing around 659,776 metric tons, struggles with aging trees and competition from other crops. In contrast, Ecuador, with its famous "fine or flavour" cocoa, produces only about 287,476 metric tons but is gaining recognition for its high-quality beans.

Côte d'Ivoire's recent challenges have reached new heights in 2023 and 2024, with poor weather and the outbreak of the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) drastically reducing output. Production has fallen by over 21%, marking an eight-year low. This shortage has caused a global ripple effect, with cocoa prices soaring by 143%—the highest in 40 years. Despite government efforts to stabilize the situation by raising farmgate prices by 50%, the supply shortage is expected to persist, with a forecasted global deficit of 374,000 metric tons for the 2023-24 season.

We also touch on the environmental toll of cocoa farming in Côte d'Ivoire. Deforestation has rapidly expanded cocoa cultivation from 260,000 hectares in the 1960s to over 4.5 million hectares today. Yet, this expansion comes at a cost: soil degradation, increased pests, and a loss of biodiversity are leading to further declines in productivity.

As we look to the future, sustainability and innovation are key. The Ivorian government, alongside international stakeholders, is working to promote more sustainable farming practices, improve infrastructure, and ensure a brighter future for the millions of farmers who depend on cocoa.