Inflation rebound risk, bank real estate exposure, Trump trade wars and dollar and EM outlooks

Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

We’re trying a ‘quickfire round’ on this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to get Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing answering the questions that clients have been asking most frequently in recent days:

• Could inflation rebound?
• Could escalation in the Middle East drive up inflation?
• Are falling commercial real estate valuations fuelling a new banking crisis?
• Is the boom in US productivity growth sustainable?
• Will Donald Trump start a trade war if he’s re-elected?

Jonathan Petersen from our Markets team is also on the show to speak to David Wilder about the dollar and what the team’s ‘smile’ framework says about how the global economy is shaping the greenback outlook this year.

Plus, in an exclusive clip from our latest emerging markets online briefing, economists Leah Fahy, Gareth Leather and David Omojomolo talk monetary policy, debt risks and ongoing restructuring negotiations.