AI’s productivity boom, central bank rhetoric vs reality, recession risk and more

Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

The potential of artificial intelligence to reshape the global economy is more than just the breathless hype of headline writers. Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, explains why AI’s impact should be thought of in terms of previous technological developments such as railways and the desktop computer and how they transformed economies in their time.

Ahead of the 26th September launch of our major new report on what AI means for economies and markets, Paul discusses recent developments with large language models, where the technology is heading from here and why this could translate into massive productivity gains.

Plus Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through the latest central bank decisions to address client questions including:

• Why we think the Fed will be cutting rates more quickly and aggressively than officials are signalling
• Why the latest data from Europe is so worrying
• And why bond markets on either side of the Atlantic have been moving in different directions

Finally, Neil introduces our forthcoming work on where equilibrium interest rates are likely to settle in a post-pandemic world, and why this is something that all investors – regardless of what they’re investing in – are going to have to pay attention to.
Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.