October 14th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

• FX:
  • USD steadied after an early dip as risk appetite faded.
  • JPY caught a haven bid on renewed U.S.–China tensions before retracing part of the move.
  • GBP softened after a U.K. labor print showed a higher unemployment rate and easing ex-bonus pay.
  • EUR slipped as focus stayed on French budget politics and softer German ZEW readings.
  • AUD/NZD underperformed alongside risk sentiment; RBA minutes signaled no immediate cut, data-dependent stance.
  • MAS left the SGD NEER settings unchanged, saying core inflation should trough near term then rise gradually through 2026.
  • A PBoC-backed outlet reiterated a greater market role in FX with guided expectations.
• Commodities:
  • Oil fell as Middle East tension eased and after the IEA trimmed its 2025 demand growth forecast; Saudi Aramco said demand is resilient and it can sustain 12mbpd capacity for up to a year without extra capex.
  • Gold and silver printed fresh highs in Asia before easing as the dollar firmed; copper slipped back toward the $10.5k/t area on stronger USD and trade worries.
• Tariffs & Trade:
  • China implemented special port fees on U.S.-related vessels and opened a probe into the impact of U.S. Section 301 tariffs on shipping.
  • MOFCOM said rare-earth curbs are license-based, not a blanket ban, but announced countermeasures against five U.S.-linked firms and warned Washington cannot seek talks while threatening new restrictions.
  • Oversight was tightened on export licenses for rare-earth magnets.
• Geopolitics:
  • Gaza: Israeli government advanced the plan while reporting incidents along agreed lines; U.S. messaging pointed to a broader regional peace push, trimming near-term energy risk premium.
  • France: Government to present a budget targeting a deficit of 4.7% by end-2026; the fiscal watchdog flagged optimistic assumptions as no-confidence maneuvering continues.
  • Ukraine: Kyiv reported new strikes on energy assets; President Zelensky to meet President Trump to discuss air defense and potential long-range munitions; EU funding moves for a special tribunal progressed.
• What to watch next:
  • Tone and follow-through on U.S.–China measures (port fees, firm-level countermeasures, license scrutiny).
  • Fed speakers for any dollar-relevant nuance.
  • Any fresh Middle East headlines that could shift energy risk premium.