Artwork

เนื้อหาจัดทำโดย Hoover Institution เนื้อหาพอดแคสต์ทั้งหมด รวมถึงตอน กราฟิก และคำอธิบายพอดแคสต์ได้รับการอัปโหลดและจัดหาให้โดยตรงจาก Hoover Institution หรือพันธมิตรแพลตฟอร์มพอดแคสต์ของพวกเขา หากคุณเชื่อว่ามีบุคคลอื่นใช้งานที่มีลิขสิทธิ์ของคุณโดยไม่ได้รับอนุญาต คุณสามารถปฏิบัติตามขั้นตอนที่แสดงไว้ที่นี่ https://th.player.fm/legal
Player FM - แอป Podcast
ออฟไลน์ด้วยแอป Player FM !

Cliodynamics Of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites And The Path Of Political Disintegration | Hoover Institution

14:35
 
แบ่งปัน
 

Manage episode 413330066 series 2903443
เนื้อหาจัดทำโดย Hoover Institution เนื้อหาพอดแคสต์ทั้งหมด รวมถึงตอน กราฟิก และคำอธิบายพอดแคสต์ได้รับการอัปโหลดและจัดหาให้โดยตรงจาก Hoover Institution หรือพันธมิตรแพลตฟอร์มพอดแคสต์ของพวกเขา หากคุณเชื่อว่ามีบุคคลอื่นใช้งานที่มีลิขสิทธิ์ของคุณโดยไม่ได้รับอนุญาต คุณสามารถปฏิบัติตามขั้นตอนที่แสดงไว้ที่นี่ https://th.player.fm/legal

Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Hoover Institution | Stanford University

The Hoover History Working Group held a seminar on Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration with Peter Turchin on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 from 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm PT.

The book is available for purchase here.

ABOUT THE TALK

Social and political turbulence in the United States and Western European countries has been rising over the past decade. Our research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine societal stability and resilience to internal and external shocks. Here I look beneath the surface of day-to-day contentious politics and social unrest, and focus on the negative social and economic trends that explain our current “Age of Discord.” One of the most important, but little appreciated, such hidden forces is a perverse “wealth pump” that, under certain conditions, begins to transfer wealth from the “99 percent” to “1 percent.” If allowed to run unchecked, the wealth pump results in both relative impoverishment of most people and increasingly desperate competition among elites. Since the number of positions of real social power remains more or less fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub–Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. A founder of the field of Cliodynamics, his books include End Times (2023) and Ultrasociety (2016).

  continue reading

110 ตอน

Artwork
iconแบ่งปัน
 
Manage episode 413330066 series 2903443
เนื้อหาจัดทำโดย Hoover Institution เนื้อหาพอดแคสต์ทั้งหมด รวมถึงตอน กราฟิก และคำอธิบายพอดแคสต์ได้รับการอัปโหลดและจัดหาให้โดยตรงจาก Hoover Institution หรือพันธมิตรแพลตฟอร์มพอดแคสต์ของพวกเขา หากคุณเชื่อว่ามีบุคคลอื่นใช้งานที่มีลิขสิทธิ์ของคุณโดยไม่ได้รับอนุญาต คุณสามารถปฏิบัติตามขั้นตอนที่แสดงไว้ที่นี่ https://th.player.fm/legal

Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Hoover Institution | Stanford University

The Hoover History Working Group held a seminar on Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration with Peter Turchin on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 from 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm PT.

The book is available for purchase here.

ABOUT THE TALK

Social and political turbulence in the United States and Western European countries has been rising over the past decade. Our research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine societal stability and resilience to internal and external shocks. Here I look beneath the surface of day-to-day contentious politics and social unrest, and focus on the negative social and economic trends that explain our current “Age of Discord.” One of the most important, but little appreciated, such hidden forces is a perverse “wealth pump” that, under certain conditions, begins to transfer wealth from the “99 percent” to “1 percent.” If allowed to run unchecked, the wealth pump results in both relative impoverishment of most people and increasingly desperate competition among elites. Since the number of positions of real social power remains more or less fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub–Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. A founder of the field of Cliodynamics, his books include End Times (2023) and Ultrasociety (2016).

  continue reading

110 ตอน

ทุกตอน

×
 
Loading …

ขอต้อนรับสู่ Player FM!

Player FM กำลังหาเว็บ

 

คู่มืออ้างอิงด่วน