96. 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

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The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP (Average Draft Position) to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

Sully concludes the 8-part 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills

2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JANUARY 14: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Minnesota Vikings scores a touchdown as time expires against the New Orleans Saints during the second half of the NFC Divisional Playoff game at U.S. Bank Stadium on January 14, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – AFC East

Two Players I Am Buying

Stefon Diggs – Overall ADP 63 WR27

After an offseason trade with Minnesota, Stefon Diggs is now the No. 1 WR in Buffalo. Diggs finished his final season in Minnesota as WR21. That was partially thanks to a very low target total (94).

Diggs now transitions into a run heavy Buffalo offense after a frustrating season in the Minnesota run heavy offense. He leaves an accurate QB in Kirk Cousins for the inaccurate QB, Josh Allen. The good news for Diggs is Allen is willing to throw down field more than Cousins. The increase in targets will make up for the accuracy of his QB that he forgoes. I am not overly high on Diggs in 2020, but I do feel that he will have the volume required to eclipse WR27.

John Brown – Overall ADP 119 WR46

After a down season in 2018 in Baltimore, John Brown had a bounce back 2019 finishing as WR20 in Buffalo. It appears that Brown has put the Sickle Cell anemia that dogged him the previous few seasons behind which is a positive.

With Stefon Diggs in town as the Bills’ top dog, it’s hard to project Brown living up to what he did last year. The good news is John Brown won’t cost you anything near where he finished last year, and he will surpass WR46 in 2020.

Two Players I Am Selling

Josh Allen – Overall ADP 90 QB 10

In his first two seasons, Josh Allen had a career completion percentage of 56.3%. Never underestimate the power of a rushing quarterback in fantasy football. In those same two seasons, Allen ran for a combined 1,141 yards and 17 touchdowns. Josh Allen finished last season as the 6th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy.

I expect some regression in 2020, but I do believe that he will remain a top scoring fantasy quarterback. The addition of Stefon Diggs to the Bills improves the passing game, and the recent addition of Zach Moss to pair with Devin Singletary improves the running game. I see Allen throwing for more yards and running less as a result of these additions. Round 7 is still early to grab your Quarterback, and if you are hell-bent on making that selection at this stage of your draft then I am certain that you can grab a higher ranked QB.

Devin Singletary – Overall ADP 48 RB23

It wasn’t a true breakout rookie season for Devin Singletary, but he certainly proved he can play in this league. He was a big run machine in his rookie season, with 4.6% of his carries turning into 20+ yard runs, the highest percent among RBs. Duplicating that level of productivity in 2020 is going to be tough for Singletary.

He has averaged nearly 100 total yards a game since he became the starting RB in Week 9. Frank Gore is gone, but the Bills spent a 3rd round pick on Zack Moss. Moss was one of the higher touted RBs of the draft class, but he will have to earn his opportunities. Singletary will open the year as the starter, but Moss almost certainly, at the very least, is the red zone back. In 2019, Singletary had a total of 5 carries within the opponents 10 yard line. His certain regression in terms of productivity combined with lack of goal line works adds up to a sell at RB23.

Take the Flyer

Zach Moss – Overall ADP 125 RB47

Zach Moss was drafted this year in the 3rd round by the Buffalo Bills. It’s a pretty decent situation for him to land. Frank Gore is gone, and while the team has seen flashes of Devin Singletary, he is undersized and has already missed four games due to injury.

The Bills are an old-school, defensive, and grind-it-out team. Moss has the potential to have a big role in this offense, especially in the red zone, making him worthy of taking the flyer.

Miami Dolphins

2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – SEPTEMBER 26: Jordan Howard #24 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on September 26, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – AFC East

Two Players I Am Buying

Jordan Howard- Overall ADP 93 RB37

I honestly think people forget how talented a RB Jordan Howard really is. I get it, he doesn’t catch passes, but the man deserves more respect. Howard has gone over 1,100 yards rushing in two of his four seasons, 900 in another, and in an injury shortened 2019 season had 525 yards rushing on only 119 carries.

He’s a welcome addition to a Dolphins team that was led in rushing last season by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Jordan Howard’s ADP is 93. I am drafting him 100 times out of 100 in the back of the 7th round as the value is too great to pass up.

Matt Brieda – Overall ADP 104 RB43

Matt Breida didn’t do much in 2019 on the 49ers with Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman doing most of the heavy lifting. In 2018, however, he was San Francisco’s best running back, and he scored at least 12 PPR points in seven of the 14 games he played.

Brieda has the chance for a fresh start with the Dolphins, and he’s expected to compete with fellow newcomer, Jordan Howard, for the starting job. Miami made a smart decision to trade for Breida from San Francisco, and Breida could become a starting fantasy Running Back at some point during the year. Any time you can draft a potential starting Running Back in the 8th round, I suggest you buy that value.

Two Players I Am Selling

DeVante Parker – Overall ADP 62 WR26

For years we watched DeVante Parker have a decent preseason, get our hopes up, and then disappoint everyone. Then 2019 happened. Parker, in his 5th NFL season, finished as the WR11, and that includes being the WR3 in total fantasy points from Week 4 on, behind only Chris Godwin and Michael Thomas. Parker hit new statistical season highs in every main category: 72 receptions / 1,202 yards / 9 TDs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is still in Miami, and the Dolphins added Tua Tagovailoa with pick 5 overall in this year’s draft. Miami will be getting Preston Williams back from injury and have Mike Gesicki in the mix. They also added a run game this offseason. Parker is likely to struggle to see the same volume he did a year ago. As a result, I am fading DeVante Parker and selling him at WR26.

Mike Gesicki – Overall ADP 130 TE15

Entering 2018 there were two rookie TEs that I really liked–Dallas Goedert and Mike Geiscki. Through the first 26 games, Gesicki struggled and looked lost on the football field. Finally we got to see the ability and talent of Mike Gesicki over the back half of 2019.

From Week 9 on, Gesicki was the TE8 on the year and closed the season averaging 11.7 PPR points a game. The biggest change in Gesicki was that he was catching touchdown passes. Through the first 25 games of his career, he failed to score, and in the next 6 games he scored 5 times. For many of the reasons noted above I worry that Gesicki will have enough volume in this offense to stay relevant. With Preston Williams back and Matt Brieda added, the targets for Gesicki are bound to drop, and the TD rate he enjoyed at the end of the season won’t continue. Mike Gesicki remains a dynasty asset I covet, but at TE15 in redraft I am selling at this ADP.

Take the Flyer

Preston Williams – Overall ADP 139 WR53

Through the first eight weeks of the 2019 season, Preston Williams was WR57 with 66.6 PPR points (in seven games). His 9.5 points per game ranked 49th. Unfortunately for Williams, the Dolphins, and his fantasy owners, Williams tore his ACL, ending his season seven games in. Prior to getting hurt, Williams was establishing himself as the No. 1 receiver for the Dolphins. In two of Williams’ prior three games before getting hurt, he scored at least 12 PPR points.

Preston Williams was an UDFA signing by Miami, and in his lone season at Colorado State, Williams posted 96 receptions 1,345 yards, and scored 14 times. He started his college career at Tennessee, ran into legal trouble, and was suspended for the entire 2017 season prior to transferring to Colorado State. As a result of his legal issues, he was not invited to the 2019 combine. The Dolphins took a flyer on Williams last season, and this season, I will as well.

New England Patriots

2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer
CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 21: James White #28 of the New England Patriots rushes for a touchdown during a game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on October 21, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Patriots defeated the Bears 38-31. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – AFC East

Two Players I Am Buying

James White – Overall ADP 77 RB30

I keep hearing and reading that without Tom Brady as his quarterback, James White will see his value drop, and that he’s a RB3 at best in 2020. I think you could have made a case for that to happen if the Patriots hadn’t signed Cam Newton, but they did.

James White is a PPR RB. Basically, if you don’t play in a league that rewards players extra points for receptions you shouldn’t own this player. White makes a living catching passes out of the backfield. Since 2016, White has 275 catches and 243 rushing attempts. In New England this season with Cam Newton under center, the Patriots should be a run heavy team. When the do go to the air, Newton has shown a desire to throw to his running backs. In 2017 and 2018, Newton targeted Christian McCaffrey 237 times. James White has a good shot at besting his career high in targets (123) and touches (181) this season. I like the player and the value and I am buying.

Sony Michel- Overall ADP 96 RB39

Sony Michel regressed in his sophomore season in 2019 after a quality year in 2018. The New England Patriots offensive line in 2019 certainly did not help Sony’s cause. Sony is coming off foot surgery in May, and is expected to be fine for Week 1.

Michel should be the focal point of New England’s offense this season with Tom Brady gone to Tampa Bay, and the Patriots’ passing game could be a work in progress with either Cam Newton or Jarrett Stidham under center. Bill Belichick will lean on Michel, who did have 180 more carries than anyone else on the roster last season. He will continue to share touches with James White, and perhaps Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris, which could be a problem. The good news is there will be a lot of them. I expect the Patriots to lead the league in rushing attempts. Volume alone is a reason to buy.

Two Players I Am Selling

Julian Edelman – Overall ADP 72 WR31

It’s a new world for Julian Edelman this season with Tom Brady gone, and Edelman’s fantasy value is on the decline. He’s 34, and adjusting to a new quarterback isn’t ideal, especially since Edelman and Brady had such strong rapport.

Hopefully, Cam Newton or Jarrett Stidham will still look for Edelman on a consistent basis since he’s clearly the No. 1 option in the passing game. As good as Edelman has been, he’s never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season, which was his high in 2015. Volume is the key for Edelman and I am not sure he is going to get enough in 2020. He’s also battled injuries in recent years, and it’s hard to trust him without Brady on his side.

N’Keal Harry – Overall ADP 157 WR58

N’Keal Harry will improve in his sophomore season after a disappointing rookie campaign, as it’s hard not to. In his rookie season, Harry started the year on the PUP list and appeared in the final seven of the Patriots’ games. Based on his numbers, you may not have noticed. He had 24 targets, 12 receptions, 105 yards and 2 touchdowns equalling 39.4 fantasy points.

He has a lot to prove in 2020, as Harry should be the No. 2 receiver for the Patriots behind Julian Edelman, but New England still has Mohamed Sanu on the roster. Harry didn’t show enough as a rookie in 2019 to warrant trust from the Patriots coaching staff or fantasy managers There’s plenty of potential for the former first-round pick, but don’t invest heavily in him on draft day. I will be avoiding Harry all together in 2020.

Take the Flyer

Cam Newton – Overall ADP 167 QB22

After signing with New England, Cam Newton can only be drafted as a high-upside No. 2 Quarterback until we see him on the field and 100% healthy. He’ll battle Jarrett Stidham for the starting role with the Patriots, and should be considered the favorite to win that job.

In Dynasty he’s a strong hold, but you won’t likely be able to buy low on him any longer. Newton missed most of last season due to a foot injury and hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2017, but it’s worth remembering how impactful he was. He was a top five fantasy Quarterback every year in which he played 16 games, and he was the No. 12 Quarterback in 2018 with 14 games. With Josh McDaniels in New England, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Newton delivers another top-10 season. At QB22, Cam is a steal.

New York Jets

2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – OCTOBER 21: New York Jets wide receiver Jamison Crowder (82) makes a catch during the second quarter of the National Football League game between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots on October 21, 2019 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – AFC East

Two Players I Am Buying

Jamison Crowder- Overall ADP 109 WR41

Jamison Crowder should be considered a sleeper in all leagues, and he’s worth drafting as a high-end No. 3 fantasy Receiver with a mid-round pick. Crowder will likely be the No. 1 option for Quarterback Sam Darnold.

Crowder will be the Slot Receiver for Adam Gase, which has worked well in the past (Jarvis Landry in Miami). With the Jets in 2019, Crowder had seven games with at least 15 PPR points in the 13 games Darnold played. Crowder has had stretches of being fantasy relevant, but hasn’t quite put it together for a full season. The Jets signed Breshad Perriman and drafted Denzel Mims in the 2nd Round this year, but Robby Anderson, and all his targets, is now in Carolina. Crowder should be the most reliable target for Sam Darnold, and I am buying. At WR41 this is excellent value.

Breshad Perriman – Overall ADP 161 WR60

Breshad Perriman struggled prior to 2019, and even to start last year. When Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both went down with injury at the end of the season, Perriman stepped up. He was the fantasy WR2 from Weeks 14-17. There is a tendency to call what he did at the end of 2019 a fluke. With his elite speed and the previously held belief of what Perriman could become when he was drafted in the round one back in 2015, I believe that it’s shortsighted to dismiss the possibility of a full-blown breakout in 2020.

Perriman joins the Jets with Jamison Crowder and 2nd round rookie pick, Denzel Mims. If Sam Darnold and the offense can improve, there are certainly targets available with Robby Anderson gone to Carolina. I’m stunned that his ADP has him at WR60. Perriman’s the rare low-risk, high-reward option at his present cost, and I am buying as a result.

Two Players I Am Selling

Le’Veon Bell – Overall ADP 36 RB18

Le’Veon Bell currently sits at RB18 with an ADP of 36. Bell could be in-line for some positive regression, especially if the Jets commit to the run game more in 2020. Bell is capable of producing at a high level. I think his ADP is a bit too high for the production he will provide as a member of the Jets.

Bell’s 2020 season can swing in either direction. With Adam Gase as his head coach, Bell could easily become a committee back, especially after the signing of Frank Gore and drafting Lamical Perine. The Jets did upgrade their offensive line by using their 2020 first-round pick on Mekhi Becton. In addition they signed Greg Van Roten, Connor McGovern, George Fant, and Alex Lewis. I am higher on Bell entering 2020 than I was entering last season, but his ADP is too high for me and I am selling as a result.

Denzel Mims – Overall ADP 196 WR67

The Jets selected Denzel Mims in the 2nd Round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He projects to start on the outside across from Breshad Perriman. Mims had a nice career at Baylor. In two of the last three seasons he topped 1,000 receiving yards. He caught at least eight touchdown passes in each of the last three years—the only player in college football to do so.

Mims is quite a raw prospect. His route running is average and he has a history of drops. The reality is he’s going to take time to become special, if he’ll be special at all. He is a WR that I am comfortable with in Dynasty, but in Redraft I am avoiding him as I do not expect much of anything out of him in his rookie season.

Take the Flyer

Chris Herndon – Overall ADP 191 TE21

Chris Herndon finished as TE16 with 113.2 PPR points in 14 games in 2018. As a result of his success as a rookie, I was all-in on Herndon to have a nice 2019 season. His 2019 was anything but nice. He started the year with a suspension and then hurt himself at the end of that suspension.

The Jets need help in the passing game, and Herndon should be a primary target for Sam Darnold. You probably don’t want to draft Herndon as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, but he’s worth a flier as a second tight end who could turn into a top 10 Fantasy option by the end of the year.

Thank you for listening to Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC East

For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @RotoHeatSully and subscribe to the Sully’s 2 Cents Podcast as well as the RotoHeat YouTube Channel.

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