V for Vaccine, Brexit Deadline, and Conspiracy Theories Thrive

Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we talk about the hope for a vaccine. On Monday, markets rose with the news of positive results from the latest Moderna study. While the study was technicality a phase 1 trial, testing if the drug is safe for human consumption, they also did preliminary tests on its effectiveness. Of the 8 patients tested, all showed levels of antibodies equal to or above those of someone who has recovered from COVID19. While RNA vaccines are extremely promising, there is still debate if they will ultimately create immunity.

The House passed a $3 Trillion COVID bill. While the House of Representatives passed a comprehensive bill for COVID relief, its survival is all bet dead in the Republican-controlled Senate. As the extra $600 bonus to unemployment ends on July 31, there will surely be a showdown on the extension or ending of the generous benefits.

Economic indicators continued to be bleak. In the US, industrial production MoM came in at -11.2% for April, marking the index's largest drop in its 101-year history. Retail sales came in at -16.4% for April, with clothing taking the biggest hit at -78.8%. For China, industrial production YoY came in at +3.9% for April. The increase is most likely do to catching up on backlogs as Chinese retail came in at -7.5% for April. Japan had its second consecutive Q of contraction, confirming our belief from Nov that Japan is in a recession.

Brexit talks resume. The UK and the EU have until the end of June to decide if they will extend negotiations past 2020. You read that right; it's a deadline for a deadline. Johnson has said in the past he does not want to extend talks, and COVID could act as an accelerator to finish the deal.

Conspiracy thinking on the rise. In today's politics, conspiracies like QAnon and a new world order has gripped the internet. The believers of such theories tend to be conservative, evangelical, male, and between 30-60 years old. Gen X is especially susceptible to these theories, having never trusted the government and growing up a healthy diet of the X-Files.

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