S1/E38: Domino Dancing From Beirut to Aleppo

Iran's Gambit

If you’ve been keeping an eye on global developments, as I assume many of you have, you’re likely aware of the seismic shift in Syria: Aleppo has fallen under the control of Tahrir al-Sham, a faction designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the United States in May 2018. While the rapidity of this development may have taken some by surprise, the evolving power dynamics in Syria were long evident. Lebanese Hezbollah, a strategic ally of Syria and a linchpin in Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, is in disarray. Having incurred devastating losses in Lebanon, it has redeployed many of its forces from Syria to Lebanon to confront perceived threats from Israel. Iran, Hezbollah's primary patron, is increasingly constrained in financing its regional alliances, while Russia, whose aerial campaigns were instrumental in preserving the Assad regime, has deprioritized Syria amid its protracted conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, the Assad regime, potentially under Israeli pressure and enticed by wealthy Arab states, has sought to distance itself from Tehran, potentially even curtailing arms transfers to Hezbollah. With the United States maintaining only a minimal military footprint in Syria and a likely complete withdrawal once President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, the geopolitical calculus has shifted. Tahrir al-Sham, reportedly backed by Turkey, has seized the opportunity to expand its territorial gains in this fragmented and volatile environment.

Today, we’ll delve into Iranian media reactions to these developments and assess the broader implications of losing northern Syria for Tehran's defense doctrine – which I can assure you, is in ruins.